Never expect a CEO to inform you of the risks of investing in his or her company. That's up to each investor to determine. Filings do give you an idea, the quarterly report filed by Anteris this week states that, "we do not believe that our current cash on hand would fund our cash needs for the 12 months following March 31, 2025. We will need additional capital to fund our operations".
If we're being honest about risk, I think the choice to do a head to head trial against Edwards and Medtronic devices does introduce more risk because if the DurAVR isn't shown to be superior to the other valves in the trial there won't be an argument for surgeons to use it even with an approval. Results from a non-head to head trial would obviously be compared with incumbent devices as well but with a head to head controlled trial inferiority on the part of the DurAVR would be stark and unmistakable. Not that I'm saying the DurAVR will be shown to be inferior, I think it will likely outperform the other valves during the trial in key metrics but I think the trial design does introduce more risk at least to some degree.
The high reward is still there, though. Even with 80 million fully paid shares after commercialization, sales of 25k valves at $40k USD each would probably result in a share price of $195 AUD. There's no guarantee that will happen because we still have a long way to go but the potential is still there. I'm currently comfortable with AVR being a small percentage of my portfolio that could grow exponentially if things go well and that I won't regret if it ultimately turns out to be dead money.
AVR Price at posting:
$6.85 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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