I think you hit the nail on the head. This has turned from a...

I think you hit the nail on the head. This has turned from a medium term decent return (1-2 years) into a long hold now. (3+ years)

Capex has gone up (often with little explaination). Now US $1 billion.
Contingencies have gone up massively. Now US $0.5 billion

So the amount being raised being alot more than many of us envisioned has meant way more dilution.
Cap raises have smashed down the SP too and some forward planning might have reduced this drain on the SP. Again, affect dilution.

Assuming no increase in NdPr prices...assuming we raise at these low SPs.......we need Phase 2 to come online AND be funded from the savings from the contingencies and some of the first year operational cash flows. (ie volume goes from 4,400 - 11,000 t/pa). I would imagine we will get a feel for this in about 1 year from now.

I have previously modelled all these impacts.....not going to share again.


Can someone explain to be the CEOs arguement "The equity raised is anticipated to go straight to the market capitalisation of the Company, supported by the project entering its next phase of development." I value a company by looking at the future cash flows (in and out) and discounting it back to a value today (using an appropriate discount rate). If we take the CEOs arguement....take our current MC of AUS $400m and add the equity of lets say AUS $1,000m results in AUS $1.4 billion.....divide that by the total shares (after the equity raise)...8 billion shares approx if they raise at 20 cents results in 17.5 cents. WHERE IS THE VALUE? THE VALUE IS IN PHASE 2....... Please correct me if I am wrong.

PS - I'm still digesting the CEO response....