ARU

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13.0¢ arafura rare earths ltd

4. we dont know it but you can bet the insider know everything...

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Investbest92

1,496 Posts.

184

09/09/24

11:09

Post #: 75589804
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Originally posted by chokdee: ↑

Fair call yet pretty simple from where I see it.

1. We have been advised certainty over time.
2. We know we are at the major - critical important financial close period that is the most important piece for the future of ARU and with the appointment of 3 amigo's we will achieve the best term financial outcome possible - all be it with a few massages.
3. We know so much of critical importance is evolving literally on a weekly basis re ex China supply - how this in turn is making for a fluid situation with final equity component.
4. There is a hell of a lot we do not know - it is commercially sensitive - it will become factual when all parties - and there are many sign off and it is announced - factual.
5. Persons making assumptions what the magical number on dilution is BS. We simply do not know at this point - so why even make it an issue?

Hypothetical example re point 3. The recent US717 million flagged equity most likely had a substantial component for stage 2 development - in fact if memory serves me management were looking to hold back some debt to what appeared to use for rapid stage 2 BFS - progress. Now let's say POSCO are a strong candidate for off take equity - and a critical part of that conversation had a potential future refinery/separation plant attached to be built in South Korea - hello there's your stage 2 strategy. And it could be pie in the sky stuff on my behalf however May 2023 PLS tied up with POSCO to do such with a reported 40% construction cost reduction to doing same in Australia - they are a fellow key G7 partner - why not. But my point is there is so much going on than we could even imagine - even when disclosed there will many parties that missed out and details of such will remain undisclosed.

I just let it play out. Nolan's will be built and stage 2 - well there's plenty being discussed there and likely why the differing equity component being altered. I anticipate less dilution than some believe - suggest yet I will not put a number on it - a guess because it is currently baseless - given we are not even close to knowing at what SP - what the final off take component may be (perhaps 90% as they use it to reduce dilution) and when - but we will in a matter of weeks to a few months now all else is settled - almost.

I prefer to focus on whom and what a glorious favorable position ARU are in when the highest of caliber debt providers/off takers will soon be aligned to those in the equity component:
Hyundai?
GE?
POSCO?
HITACHI?
US?
JAPAN?
GERMAN?
All G7 pals and more.

We know ARU are - and this is the irony of delays - in an extreme favorable position to close out equity component - hence 3 amigo's appointment to secure such. One does not spend 20+ years to arrive at this major - most critical financing closure period and sell out at low ball.

What that WA article "could" suggest is something of an extremely positive nature has occurred and hence the lower equity number - all be it still very substantial.

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4. we dont know it but you can bet the insider know everything to do with what effects price and their pals are well informed.

Really for what they get paid their performance is not good enough.

ARU Price at posting: 15.8¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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1 Great analysis

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Last 13.0¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $320.3M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
13.0¢	13.5¢	12.5¢	$411.5K	3.150M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
54	2891858	12.5¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
13.0¢	170510	5

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
54	2891858	0.125
61	2620063	0.120
32	1811777	0.115
27	1339032	0.110
10	986001	0.105

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.130	170510	5
0.135	791422	13
0.140	866801	13
0.145	806161	17
0.150	2241810	13

Last trade - 16.10pm 15/11/2024 (20 minute delay)

ARU (ASX) Chart

4. we dont know it but you can bet the insider know everything...

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