Hi DB et al.,
Your question of how WPL can progress the project (and its operatorship) without ownership certainty is a good one.
Short answer: I don't know...exactly.
Lets see what are/maybe the key issues at play here.
1) The Priority. The Senegalese Govt wants/needs this project to get up smoothly and on time. No one wants to upset the Govt or its objectives; they all know the Govt has the final say here and each JV member will do everything to ensure they do not cause any 'external' delays.
2) Friends of FAR, but...Far would not have gone down the ICC route without consultation with Sall's people and their conditional 'approval'. The most likely condition being....that they wont hold up the project for an ICC outcome.
3) Timing. FAR of course will be pushing as hard as possible to get a resolution before FID. After FID, and IMHO, it will be difficult for FAR to pursue any PE over physical interest or operatorship of the project on the basis that this would most very likely hold up the project and be against the Govt's unspoken conditions.
4) Post FID compensation. Should the ICC award in FAR;s favour, it seems the only remedy available to FAR would be compensation from COP.
5) Major assumption: FAR wins? Lets not forget that FAR is stepping into a very unfamiliar legal arena in which COP is both very skilled and very well armed. It should not be taken for granted, in the legal world, that FAR's pure 'Truth' will trump COP's brute skill backed by brute resources.
6) How could the case pan out? Should the court award to Far, they will take into consideration the ToR which will also include remedy options. FAR will trot out 1000+ pages evidencing COPs intentional breach of the JVA (the 'misplaced comma' syndrome) and the many billions of value that they have lost. COP will have many well evidenced rebuttals backed by copious case law. Yet I suspect their main backstop could still centre around the credibility and capability of FAR to give true effect to the action of PE within the time frame allotted. Far will also have to prove its intention, and it and its sponsor's capability, preparedness (corporate and financial agreements in place) and ability to execute the PE financially before the Tribunal can consider any material remedy.
Welcome to the grey area. Nevertheless, I agree with some posters here that the most likely outcome, in the event of an award in FAR's favour, will be a financial settlement. $10-150m is my guess range (Dont jump me here. This is pure arm-waving...there is no basis whatsoever for these numbers apart from 'gut').
7) WPL should be pretty safe. In any event, WPL Sale and Purchase agreement with COP would (should) have indemnified WPL from any action or recourse to the Entity and its shares that WPL purchased from COP.
So...WPL should continue in its role as future Operator, the project goes forward without interruption and if FAR is lucky, it'll get some coin...at a later date.
Warning: the above contains NO facts whatsoever, just unsubstantiated opinion and speculation. Caveat Emptor.
Cheers,
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