I’ve been doing some research on the SA ‘24 elections and this is what I’ve come up with so far.
No one really knows what is going to be the outcome.
ANC = 40% and will be the majority of coalition. They lost 15% to MK party (Natal / Zulu) and Zuma the ex ANC president who was done for corruption and got out of jail to run for this election.
The SARB and the big 4 banks (approx 80% MS) have said to the ANC, you have 2 weeks to form a coalition or it starts going to shit. So everyone is working off a 2 week timeline, whether it’s true or not.
If the ANC join with the MK party they have majority (55%) and the ANC will loose Ramaphosa (current ANC leader) and Zuma will remove the constitution and acquit his own corruption charges. Currently Zuma is asking for a recount.
The EFF +9% is a militant group who want to remove white ownership in SA (Zimbabwe esc govt) but they need another party to provide a govt with the ANC.
The hope is for ANC (40%), DA (+20%) and IFP (3 ish %) . The ANC and DA (seen as a white party) haven’t got on ideologically and their recent campaigns were brutal against each other but they have a connection in the middle class : traditional (DA) emerging (ANC). Then IFP is a conservative black party that would not only act as a dispute mediator but would give them the balance of power in the Zulu and Natal province.
With the IFP, DA, and ANC they would have majority in every province and Ramaphoss would probably stay in power, and constitution would stay in tact.
No one has a cyrstal ball on this, I don’t live in SA and my Algo’s moderate my content for education.
I hope the people of SA have the best outcome for them
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