chalk it down bottom dweller 2010 the year.??, page-11

dilution brought the price down - but I think one of the issues "keeping the price there is the profit guidance"

examining the issue of dilution - In the process of dilution grange has also increased in size thorugh acquisitions

In 2008 when there were 380,025,554 shares on issue the diluted EPS was 5.82 cents

In 2009 october (prior to current issue) when there were 436,895,226 shares on issue the consolidated EPS was 19.69

subsequent to this after placement there are 1,149,097,776 on issue. This is 2.63x dilution. If this dilution is factored in to 2009 results then the consolidated EPS is 19.69/2.63 which is 7.48cents.

Given that similar companies with a working longlife mine and positive cash flow trade at EPS close to 10 you would think that 75 cents would be a fair price.

Considering that pellet pricing issues will result in lower profits (or even a loss) next year - no one here seems to be able to say that concretely. however profits are bound to return over a year I made a 30% discount reaching a figure of 50 cents and potential upside to 80 when the balance sheet returns. close to 45 cents is what the brokers have said

none of the above calculations involve the positives or negatives of southdown. So although there was a three fold dilution between 2008 and now there has been significant material changes including a 3.38 times increase in EPS and reduction in debt and restructuring of royalties

these calculations are mine and may have overlooked specifics - please point them to me if you know of them