% chance of Ironbark success?

Hi all. Newbie here.

I think I read something from Mathew Boyall saying Ironbark is 25% chance of commercial success. Just now regarding the NZOG takeover I read the following -

"At the takeover panel's request, they noted that the 5 percent odds given on Ironbark being commercially developed was an assessment by Northington based on earlier work by SRK consulting".

Obviously they are saying that to appease shareholders but why only 5% and is that accurate? Can anyone talk more of SRKs involvement as I haven't looked in to this fully yet.

What do CUE holders think? Obviously a lot of you must think it's greater than a 5% chance or you probably wouldn't be holding. Please explain why you think it is a higher chance of commercial success (aside from BP and Beach involvement - or is that the only reason?).

I got this on my watch list. Looks like a very high risk/high reward stonk. Having said that, at almost a 90 million MC it looks like Ironbark is factored in to the current SP a fair bit already. Since it popped from around .7c by the look of things.

Keen to hear some holders perspectives on this.

Thanks.