% chance of Ironbark success?, page-18

I think its closer to US$9 but that gas agreement is a fixed price contract with an Indonesian power company...it is not reflective of the broader gas market.

If you are looking for a blue print, look to CVN. Very similar with regards to pre drill market cap, size of prospect, ownership level and risk of success. In the 6 months leading up to the drilling, CVN added +55% and rallied a further 365% following a successful drill. In Cue terms, that would mean a SP of $0.20 pre-drill and anywhere from $0.80-1.00 on a successful outcome.

So in that context $0.125 feels pretty cheap. But in CUE's case it has a functioning business outside of Ironbark whereas CVN sold it producing assets in Thailand. So risk/reward with CUE is much better given it has multiple catalysts that could add significant value prior to the drilling at Ironbark.