change in dynamics

It was the Singaporean mob (read Chinese) increasing its holdings the last few days from 8.5% to 10.8%.

They now have a blocking stake.

You can't see the Chinese being a seller, so Xstrata will have to either drop their 90% acceptance condition and live with operating a listed company or walk away. Its getting tricky now. You would be inclined to think Xstrata would very much prefer complete control and therefore walk away.

Also can be hard to pick the Chinese strategy. They may be happy to sit on less than 20% and not actually launch a takeover bid.

Xstrata have cock_d up this takeover bid. By failing to talk to major shareholders prior, and then failing to cut a deal to get it over the line, they have opened the door up for the Chinese to take a blocking stake.

Anyone else have thoughts?