"which due to the volatile GP is extremely hard to predict"That...

"which due to the volatile GP is extremely hard to predict"

That pretty much sums up the short term price behaviour Bob, especially over the last couple of months during the wet season when there was less news flow from exploration and the main influence has been POG.

More high grade exploration success this season would help- especially anything similar to GH or good extensions of Western limb. Keep in mind that WL is open at depth (with grade and width best at depth) so that alone leaves good upside to high grade jorc ounces. Then there is surface extension potential, and if we get really lucky there may be a larger nearby high grade deposit yet to be discovered.
Exploration success played the major role in ABU's out performance over the last year’s exploration season. High cash balance and low cost estimates also were very important.

Beyond the next couple of months production results will probably play the largest part- unless exploration is successful beyond expectations (SIR SYR have shown how exploration success can blitz all other news at times).
Record breaking gold price decline has shown what can happen on the downside.
I think the bulk of that down side is behind us now with the POG now not even close to keeping up with money supply growth. Nor has gold kept up with recent years cost increases of most gold producers many of which have had margins squeezed to the point of forcing production cuts and staff lay-offs. ABU's very low cost estimates have insulated it from the worst effects of this big gold price decline.
Tax loss selling is a possibility but that may already be mostly done for this sector after many would have bailed on the recent POG smash.

If the worst of the gold price decline is behind us; with production approaching and the new exploration season having begun, hopefully it's mostly positive sp influences now with less headwinds remaining.