if you change your opinion on SSM upon this announcement, one...

if you change your opinion on SSM upon this announcement, one may argue that you were about 12 months too late in your opinion updating.

imo, this information has being hanging over the valuation for about a year, hence the current PE of 5.8x and EV / EBITDA of 3.7x.

In FY 11 this lost Telstra contract contributed 100 mil to rev while the 6 months extension to Dec 12 contributes about 70 mil to FY 13 revenue.

FY 12
total EBITDA: 38.04
Fixed Com Revenue: 300.2
Fixed com EBITDA: 21.7 --> fixed comm EBITDA margin 7%
assuming FY 12 telstra revenue contribution: 70*2=140 and 7% margin, the telstra EBITDA contribution to FY is 10.1
--> total EBITDA excluding the lost telstra contract: 38.04- 10.12 = 27.92

this gives a EV / EBITDA (ex telstra) = 5.08

imo it's reasonably conservative.

not to say they are retaining part of the contract.

FY 13 is likely to benefit not only from what ever NBN contract to be executed but also further upside in the Mobile business.

I might just stamp it HOLD for now.