It is no easy task arriving at a value for 88e, there are so many different approaches from parties that should be credible. Deciding which to back is the hard part, This summary of what is available gives food for thought.
D Wall, Premier Oil, Cenkos all produce different numbers, but give a useful ball park.
Cenkos is straight forward as it should be their job is valuation, although they may be optimistic their valuation is the only one that attempts a value on all of 88e, Conventional, unconventional and Yukon.
D Wall and Premier are presently only focused on the potential of a piece of area A conventional. In an attempt to compare apples with apples, its worth separating the Cenkos valuation for the Charlie 1 conventional and comparing notes.
Cenkos provide two valuations of the seven targets, risked which has the probability of failure included and unrisked which presumes success on all. Risked the total is 2p (3.9 AU cents) and unrisked 14.4p (28.17 AU cents), all of which is based on the 480 mmbo, indicated by the seismic results.
Note the Cenkos report is prior to the last capital raise, so the values should be dropped by the dilution of ~ 3%
Then it becomes more complicated, as both D Wall and Premier have indicated values at different points, in the cycle in proving up the plays.
Premier start with much lower assumptions and only on the Stellars, their numbers show a net for the 60% working interest of 150 mmbo, making the entire Torok play a 250 mmbo recoverable field. Which looks reasonable based on their calculation of 1000 mmbo in place and a 25% recovery factor. Premiers are unrisked numbers, so presuming success producing 2p reserves, which they indicate a value of above $4/barrel, so a US $1 billion value to be shared. $600m to Premier, $300m (AU$453m) to 88e and $100m to Burgundy.
Based on the above successful Stellars will add Au 6.4c/share to 88e's base share price
D Wall is working wth an internal company risked back assumption of 200 to 300 mmbo recoverable from Charlie 1, which he values at $4 to $5 US/barrel (at time of sale after proving up reserves). To prove up reserves, both the long reach multi frac and additional delineation wells need to be successful.
200 to 300mmbo is a very interesting assumption as the Torock 88e net mean is 192mmbo, which implies an expectation of between 8 and 108mmbo from other targets
In all, a value range of US 800 to $1500 million. ( AU$ 1500m to $2264m) It is higher than Premier, but does include an expectation of positive contribution from targets other than the Stellars. That said Premiers 250mmbo for the Torock/Stellars is conservative compared to 88E, who calculate a gross mean resource of 639mmbo for the same combined Stellar targets
Dave further defines value of early stage success in Charlie 1 at the hopeful expectation of a market cap of AU$ 500m plus, prior to capital raising for the multi frac next year. Broadly that is consistent with his statement that 40 to 50% of the value is achieved at this point, and a final value of AU$1500m being end game for area A conventional oil.
Au $1500m equates to Au 21c added value/share.
To summarise, there are 3 price and timeline points shown in AU $
Pre Drill Charlie 1, Cenkos 3.9c
After drill Charlie 1, 88e 7c plus
After 2P reserves proven, Cenkos 28.2c, 88e 21c, Premier 6.4c
All in all, after full prove up of reserves at Charlie 1, 88e and Cenkos are not to far apart on the value add for success, Au 21c v 28.17. Premier lag behind at Au 6.4c, but as discussed have only included the Torok at a much lower recovery rate. Average them all and its Au 18.5c for Charlie 1
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