To put it in simple language, this is what happening with world’s economy, IMHO.
USA, Europe – Consumers.
China, India – Producers.
Australia – Raw material suppliers.
This is why and how whole economic drama is going to unfold.
1. First to flag up the economic crisis would be consumers ofcourse, saying we don’t have enough money to buy any more products.
Consequences:
USA and Europe going in turmoil.
However, at this stage China, India (producers) have backlog orders to clear
No impact on China and India – forecasting double growth figures.
Australia, Raw material suppliers of course no impact at this stage.
2. Producers have no order to work on, industries going down.
Consequences:
China, India – forecasting shrinking economy, dire industry export figures.
However, Australia has some backlog to clear of committed orders.
Consumers --- No news from them, may be slowly recovering. --- We are at this stage (haven’t herd in news Europe for a while), IMHO.
3. Raw material suppliers going down, no demand for raw goods.
Consequences:
This is where things will get worse for Australia,
But by this time , USA and may be Europe have regain buying power and started consuming oversupply of goods produced in stage 1 and 2.
So probably when we heard how bad things are in Australia, just shift the thinking and invest in US stock market, make your profit and bring the money back to invest when we (Australia) hit rock bottom.
I know it looks so simple but to me this is what is happening now. Call me eccentric, but I told this thing to my mates in 2007. It is just taking it longer than I anticipated to turn the cycle.
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