Hi Horsetrader,Charlie is not always right, his analysis is...

Hi Horsetrader,

Charlie is not always right, his analysis is sometimes a little top down and he is nearly always optimistic. However notwithstanding that he is, imho, the 'analyst'/research broker to pay attention to operating on the ASX. Why? Because he makes reasoned recommendations and unlike all his IB counterparts isn't forever equivicating because he backs his judgement . Resource investing, most especially at the Mid tier level and below, is all about calculated risk taking. If even 50% of ones high conviction growth picks work out then one will do very well. I think Charlie has a hit ratio above 50%. What is more is he is clearly enjoys and is engaged with the market and has a much better feel for it that your average buy side institutional analyst or quant.
And as for the FMG recommendations - you have to remember he started recommending FMG when it was at under $20 (pre split) and all the other brokers wouldn't touch it so his buy at $10 (post split) call wasn't the worst recommendation ever.

Its just a shame that he is discontinuing his under the southern cross daily email in November as it was such an engaging read and a great precis on which companies that I (as a 'part time' investor) may have overlooked are worth researching.

Getting back to the topic at hand, I'm surprised about his bullishness on the likelihood of a BHP bid. Like others I wouldn't think BHP could justify a $60 share/50b takeover. Although a smaller scale, I would see a better ROE from a bid for KAR (disclosure I'm a holder) with cheap exposure to the exciting Santos Basin. That being said, although I'm not (currently) a SH, I will be watching WPL SP closely now and am investigating cheap call options just in case. I remember the APA bid for QAN being proceeded by similar price action and rumours of a bid which I dismissed as fanciful (why would anyone pay $5 for QAN, lol).

Good luck holders! Hopefully with or without a t/o WPL will reward investors patience with Pluto.