charo plot, page-15

Flow rates and water coning - to me this is a black art - the mathematical models do not have detailed enough geological inputs to be difinative and every field is unique.

If the oil price is up and your top side can handle more water, you ease the chokes off and monitor the well. But if you pull too hard on the well you could end up with a 90% water cut and have to redrill the well.

It is my experience that most operators are conservative in this area and most small non-operators are more willing to take the risk for the sake of cash flow. This ends up in the should 'Australia put more spin in their attack' type of discussion. Some people seem certain they know the answer.

Prospect Selection - success has many fathers while failure is an orphan - locations are always collaborative and sometimes pass through many hands before getting drilled. Since I get blamed for dry holes all the time, I look to the future and dont worry about keeping score about the past.

Ground stability - many well sites even in the desert are stable at ground level and down through the unconsolidated soil to the beginning of real rock but some have unstable layers in the first 5-40 m (voids under calcrite, hidden water saturated sands etc.). Without a costly survey you dont know until you set your surface casing. If it is any consolation, a tough start to a well is considered good luck by the surprising superstitious oil comunity.