Venture Global signing their 5th SPA (since Sept 27 2017) on Monday with BP for 2mt over 20yrs, bringing total sold capacity to 6mt... the snowball/ domino effect is well and truly in motion! With DOE expected to issue non-FTA approval in late 2018, targeted construction beginning also in 18', they are firm favourites now to lead the next wave. The Calcasieu Pass terminal was always going to be close in our rear-vision mirror, albeit a dark horse that has bolted to the front of the pack considering it was not ranked in the top 10 second wave LNG projects according to World Gas Intelligence. An update on the progress of our aspiring US rivals;
Corpus Christi's Train 3 (4.5mt & estimated EPC $2.36 Billion) has 2mt worth of SPAs locked in.
Sabine Pass Train 6, 4.5mt. Cheniere's focus is on filling Corpus Christi Train 3.
Delfin's 13mt $8 Billion terminal, signed an MOU with China Gas Holdings for 3mt on November 8 2017. Will have an initial start up capacity of 9mt. Will jointly develope with Golar. Has a $1.5 Billion commitment from KDB Korea but Delfin founder and Chief Executive Officer Frederick Jones has stated that the company is tapping Chinese Banks to help fund the $8 Billion project. " We'd like to make an FID this year but we have to be realistic. The numbers don't add up... if we could see crude oil stay in the $55-$60 range for a sustainable period of time, and start creeping into the higher 60s, then LNG will find its level adequate for the whole industry".
Shell's 15mt $9.2B Lake Charles terminal on Feb 8 2018 filed a request with the Louisiana Department of Environmental Quality seeking a permit to extend construction start deadline to November 1 2019. Shell is instead pressing ahead with partners Petro China, Kogas, Misubishi Corp with its $14B LNG Canada terminal, with Japan's JGC Corp and US firm Fluor having won orders to design & build the facility. Hoping for FID in 2018.
Exxon Mobil's & Qatar's 15.5mt $10B Golden Pass terminal has received little to no press... although as of April 2018 Qatar was in talks with Exxon over a deal to own US Shale Gas. Has full regulatory approval. Were "considering" converting their current import terminal into an export facility (as of Dec 17').
Cameron's 10mt Train 4 & 5 is nowhere to be seen. Has project delays with Trains 1-3 which are expected to come online in early to late 2019. It also hasn't been granted full regulatory approval, having pre-filed with FERC on March 4 2015, with precedent indicating 14-17 quarters till issuance of NFTA .
Tellurian's 26mt $16B! (estimated) Driftwood Terminal... Earliest FID late 2019 or mid 2020 due to the completion of the regulatory process.
Next Decade's 27mt $17.3B! (estimated) Rio Grande Terminal. Will have an initial start up capacity of 9mt. FERC approved pre-file May 2016 with precedent indicating 9-12 quarters till issuance of NFTA. Should gain full approval by late 2018 or mid 2019. The completion of the FEED "update package/ improvements" concluded on Feb 1 2018, while Next Decade is planning to sign a binding EPC deal with CB&I in the 2nd quarter of this year.
So with Calcasieu Pass & Corpus Christi Train 3 nearing sold out capacity where else could buyers turn next i wonder??! Very slim pickings of projects at this moment can guarantee supply by 22/23'. Sabine Pass Train 6 certainly and a real long shot Delfin, who has no EPC contract or finances in order.
As JB stated at the Nov 2017 AGM presentation, "One of the things thats really resonated with customers when we've talked to them recently is the de-risking of the projects. As they are looking at the projects that are available in the world to pick up LNG from, its hard to, in fact its impossible to point to one thats as ready to go as our project. We have the entire design of the Magnolia project basically in a box ready to go. There's no other LNG plants in the world thats at this stage of readiness".
Backed up by GVs statement in April's Quarterly " extremely valuable toward finalising sale agreements" in relation to talks had with potential off takers during the 3rd quarter... he's not playing around. He's been dropping lots of subtle hints lately when he doesn't need to, to keep us in the loop.
That first, anchor BTA is on our doorstep, which will open the floodgates from there on...
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