chart analysis., page-106

Z, it may yet be that 12.5 was bottom and trading to 14 was the beginning of confirming it but it's not yet confirmed. Keeping it simple, classical charting says you have a new uptrend when you have higher lows and higher highs. Until you have that the trend is still intact or at best going sideways which is not necessarily a break of trend.

Here you have a move to 14, the next move down is critical - can it keep above 12.5? If so they will have a higher low and when it moves above the 14 you will have a higher high and the 12.5 is safely confirmed.

The move to 14 wasn't particularly strong and the support at 13 will probably get tested again. Right now jumping on a bull trade is an aggressive move because the bottom is not confirmed. There are other tests but they are really all trying to work out the same thing eg was this move to 14 a real move? Will it hold?

One of the Rothschilds, can't remember which, had a saying that the first eighth and the last eighth of a move are the most costly/risky. It basically means that not enough is known and decisions are possibly being made as gambles. The smart traders who make a living out of this seem to make their money in those middle 3/4 of a move.