Hi,
Analysts are looking for signals that may provide some indications on the future evolution of the price. If everyone is looking at the same chart and sees the same signal, then people act so to benefit of that information, and by doing so, influence the price itself.
The company being listed only for a few months, there isn't much historical graph data to use and compare.
Yet, let's start by looking here at the repeatability of the signal from June till now.
On July 14th, the price drops below the Simple Moving Average across 20 periods - SMA (20) - Nothing much will happen during the next 14 days. The consolidation exists and is lateral. The price doesn't significantly drop to reach the lower bollinger. It waits for the lower bollinger to catch up. Both buyers and sellers seem to agree a price range. To be fully exhaustive, I see an attempt from the bullish side, which failed, probably because the consolidation wasn't complete. Both sides might have wanted to test the long term (50 period) moving average (in blue) which definitely acted as a strong support. against which the price bounced.
Now replace the 14th July by 28th August and repeat the scenario. Once again the price cools down after the rush, and though the price drops and reaches the SMA20, doesn't seem willing to drop to the lower bollinger. It's fairly logical when associated with the fondamentals too : the helicopter campaign is ongoing, there is no reason for the price to go in any direction, wait and see.
How long will this lateral consolidation last ?
Based on the previous cycle, should we reach the SMA50 at the current pace and bounce against, one could expect the 17th september.
The RSI is a momentum indicator, and is presently slighly above 0.5, in what looks like a stable position. It's not overbought nor oversold, all parties seem to agree on the current valuation. Yet the lowest the RSI was in the last cycle was 0.4\, so there might be some room for a few bears, that might drop another 0.1c at 0.034AUD in a few days, which would be a local low.
Yet, maybe the geophysical results will have been published by then.
The next few days we could expect to witness ever decreasing volumes.
Quickly : We are above the cloud, which is good for bulls. The lagging span didn't manage to cross over the price. It bounced. Maybe we could expect a few more failed attempts followed by the price soar once again ?
The Tenkan ( pink, short term, 9 periods) is above the Kidjun (red, medium term, 26 periods). Bullish signal to me.
Could the Kidjun offer a resistance at 0.034, should the price keep dropping ? Not sure when considering the past behavior.
...
Not much info from Andrew's pitchfork, except that the median seems to support the price quite strongly. ( 3 failed attempts to cross lately)
BTW, supertrend is green
...
Fibonnaci : When normalizing the cycles, it seems that the n+1 reaches 61.8% more than the former local high. Can one consider two occurrences as a trend ?
Does this mean that 0.0585 is the top objective for the next cycle ? of course, more question than answers.
...
0.0345 by 22nd september ?
and what's next ? Could it be this ? ( all rectangles are the same height, size differs from 13 days to 22 days)
Target 0.055 by mid october.
(at this rate we reach 10 cents the 10th May 2021 and 20 cents the 22nd July 2022..., a much slower growth than Fibonacci)
Tell me what you see in these graphs.
Personally, I will hold. Would accumulate for another week if given the possibility.
The bounce could be much shorter than given by the analytics as the fundamentals should not be disconnected.
Who knows when the announcement of the geophysical campaign will occur ?
Yet, should the announcement messes-up with my estimated schedules, the different target should still remain the same.
Cheers,
(20min delay)