Has anyone done any projections on the share dilution following the Cap raise that will come for the move to production?
If there is approx. $675M needed for the first stage at 70/30 debt to equity ratio (my guess only), would mean $202.5M to be raised.
If that was done at say 5c (after DFS) then that would mean an additional $4.05B shares making a total of $7.8B shares on issue.
If the NPV of stage 1 is $669M then that works out to be 8.5c per share.
If we expect the share price at the current stage to be 30% of NPV (before DFS, funding, offtakes etc) then the share price (on a fully diluted basis) should be approx 2.6c.
So are we then in the ballpark for a fair valuation for the stage of the project?
Major assumption is the price that capital is raised at and a projected debt/equity ratio.
If I skip stage 1 and value the company using the expansion figures (1.985B capex, 2.069B NPV, Cap raise $595M @ 5c, Total SOI 15.7B) the future share price at NPV value is 13c and at 30%, today would make share price target about 4c. So quite a bit undervalued compared to today!
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