To all BPT shareholders,
I did some quick back of the envelope calculations and I think we will have some good news for Monday. Morgans (Australia) expect PAT $334M
(see: https://www.morgans.com.au/research-and-markets/reporting-calendar). I use Self Wealth as a trading platform and is predicts PAT of $350M.
The GP margin was 38.88% in 2020 and 41% in 2019. I have used 39% on a conservative basis (I think it might be more as brent prices have increased compared to 2020). Sure some of the prices are contracted and hence that's why I haven't assumed a major change.
The 4th Quarter report for 2021 details revenue $1,519M therefore at GP margin of 39% is $592M Gross Profit.
Seeling/Admin and R&D assume $30M (which probably could be lower but not material).
Interest expense was positive last year and I have assumed $Nil as it has improved but negligible effect.
Operating Income is therefore $562M.
Then assume 30% for taxes (but I note due to the impairments in previous years this may be less). Tax expense $177.6M
NPAT is therefore $384.4M.
Comparing to Morgans this is a $50M improvement and $35M inprovement of SWF. This is a 10% improvement in PAT.
All other things being equal expect share price on Monday to be $1.33. Now the outlook will also have a massive impact. Hopefully, anything positive on drilling results, or production capacity coming online quicker will also further add to the SP.
Note:
PAT = Profit after tax
Assumed no impairment specially since the current crude and gas prices shouldn't cause an impairment.
Assumed no further Western flank reduction in reserves.
Note I also haven't included anything regarding Delta covid threat.
I haven't also included gains in gas price from Lattice deal for FY2022 & FY2023.
I know the above is a crude calculation and not perfect but it was my calculation and I thought why not share with others and brighten up your weekend. Best of luck.
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Mkt cap ! $3.370B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$1.48 | $1.49 | $1.47 | $7.797M | 5.275M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
38 | 413481 | $1.48 |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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$1.49 | 114899 | 65 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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31 | 369515 | 1.480 |
22 | 201965 | 1.475 |
33 | 458273 | 1.470 |
19 | 449546 | 1.465 |
16 | 134572 | 1.460 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
1.485 | 99248 | 60 |
1.490 | 144974 | 27 |
1.495 | 179830 | 20 |
1.500 | 339799 | 17 |
1.505 | 455780 | 18 |
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