Here are some real informative charts, that detail institutional order flow, range theory, and likely directional bias moving forward.
1.
- This is the range we are playing within on a monthly (HTF) chart. The fib is drawn from $2.25 which is a institutional draw on liquidity called a breaker block or otherwise known as a balanced price range, down to the recent level here where we have moved off of a bullish order block and further shown to support the buyside of the curve.
- The fib provides guidance to where and which quadrant of the range we are in, each providing different expectations. The lower half of the range (i.e., where we are now), tends to move more explosively and therefore general order blocks, voids, and breakaway gaps are used.
- Once price reaches the red line (i.e., equilibrium), you should all expect a measure of a liquidity hunt to take place. Generally, as we are now moving on the buy side of the curve, this will mean dropping beneath a low to accumulate new orders. Therefore, when the price is reaching or at $1.670, expect this measure to take place.
Notice how when micro grading the quadrants the equilibrium level on the LTF was the exact level price repelled from...? Random isn't it. ($1.215).
The premise of being a buyer in the oil stocks is formed from a different way of analysis, similar, but different. I'm obviously not going to go into details on how I arrive at my directional premise for an actual commodity, but just know that $61.2 - $65.5 is a LONG-TERM balanced price range (i.e., bullish POI), that has seen real accumulation take place by large institutions. Therefore as a positional trade I bought into a few different oil companies - including this. As well as actually trading the oil futures, decent quid last night
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Retail indicators do not indicate when price moves, believe me I used to be in that camp as well. Growing as a trader is realisation that you do not need any indicator to form bias.
