To all BPT shareholders,
I did some quick back of the envelope calculations and I think we will have some good news for Monday. Morgans (Australia) expect PAT $334M
(see:
https://www.morgans.com.au/research-and-markets/reporting-calendar). I use Self Wealth as a trading platform and is predicts PAT of $350M.
The GP margin was 38.88% in 2020 and 41% in 2019. I have used 39% on a conservative basis (I think it might be more as brent prices have increased compared to 2020). Sure some of the prices are contracted and hence that's why I haven't assumed a major change.
The 4th Quarter report for 2021 details revenue $1,519M therefore at GP margin of 39% is $592M Gross Profit.
Seeling/Admin and R&D assume $30M (which probably could be lower but not material).
Interest expense was positive last year and I have assumed $Nil as it has improved but negligible effect.
Operating Income is therefore $562M.
Then assume 30% for taxes (but I note due to the impairments in previous years this may be less). Tax expense $177.6M
NPAT is therefore $384.4M.
Comparing to Morgans this is a $50M improvement and $35M inprovement of SWF. This is a 10% improvement in PAT.
All other things being equal expect share price on Monday to be $1.33. Now the outlook will also have a massive impact. Hopefully, anything positive on drilling results, or production capacity coming online quicker will also further add to the SP.
Note:
PAT = Profit after tax
Assumed no impairment specially since the current crude and gas prices shouldn't cause an impairment.
Assumed no further Western flank reduction in reserves.
Note I also haven't included anything regarding Delta covid threat.
I haven't also included gains in gas price from Lattice deal for FY2022 & FY2023.
I know the above is a crude calculation and not perfect but it was my calculation and I thought why not share with others and brighten up your weekend. Best of luck.
(20min delay)