To all BPT shareholders,
I did some quick back of the envelope calculations and I think we will have some good news for Monday. Morgans (Australia) expect PAT $334M
(see: https://www.morgans.com.au/research-and-markets/reporting-calendar). I use Self Wealth as a trading platform and is predicts PAT of $350M.
The GP margin was 38.88% in 2020 and 41% in 2019. I have used 39% on a conservative basis (I think it might be more as brent prices have increased compared to 2020). Sure some of the prices are contracted and hence that's why I haven't assumed a major change.
The 4th Quarter report for 2021 details revenue $1,519M therefore at GP margin of 39% is $592M Gross Profit.
Seeling/Admin and R&D assume $30M (which probably could be lower but not material).
Interest expense was positive last year and I have assumed $Nil as it has improved but negligible effect.
Operating Income is therefore $562M.
Then assume 30% for taxes (but I note due to the impairments in previous years this may be less). Tax expense $177.6M
NPAT is therefore $384.4M.
Comparing to Morgans this is a $50M improvement and $35M inprovement of SWF. This is a 10% improvement in PAT.
All other things being equal expect share price on Monday to be $1.33. Now the outlook will also have a massive impact. Hopefully, anything positive on drilling results, or production capacity coming online quicker will also further add to the SP.
Note:
PAT = Profit after tax
Assumed no impairment specially since the current crude and gas prices shouldn't cause an impairment.
Assumed no further Western flank reduction in reserves.
Note I also haven't included anything regarding Delta covid threat.
I haven't also included gains in gas price from Lattice deal for FY2022 & FY2023.
I know the above is a crude calculation and not perfect but it was my calculation and I thought why not share with others and brighten up your weekend. Best of luck.
Chart - BPT, page-6
- There are more pages in this discussion • 653 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add BPT (ASX) to my watchlist
(20min delay)
|
|||||
Last
$1.63 |
Change
-0.015(0.91%) |
Mkt cap ! $3.707B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$1.63 | $1.64 | $1.60 | $12.11M | 7.470M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
6 | 203176 | $1.63 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$1.63 | 300 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 9272 | 1.705 |
1 | 10892 | 1.635 |
1 | 10892 | 1.630 |
4 | 134983 | 1.625 |
1 | 10792 | 1.620 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
1.630 | 200 | 1 |
1.640 | 15292 | 3 |
1.645 | 49792 | 3 |
1.650 | 14844 | 2 |
1.655 | 27244 | 2 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 05/06/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
|
|||||
Last
$1.64 |
  |
Change
-0.015 ( 0.27 %) |
|||
Open | High | Low | Volume | ||
$1.63 | $1.64 | $1.60 | 2255441 | ||
Last updated 15.59pm 05/06/2024 ? |
Featured News
BPT (ASX) Chart |
The Watchlist
MGU
MAGNUM MINING AND EXPLORATION LIMITED
Neil Goodman, MD
Neil Goodman
MD
Previous Video
Next Video
SPONSORED BY The Market Online