You're not wrong J, I was a bit tongue in cheek in that response just because the OP was so sure OA's were better options than OB's which imo is purely dependent on your assumption of market direction. For that matter and for clarity, the lowest risk option is always the heads and for all any of us know, gold and copper prices could fall through the floor and not recover until 2020. I'm not saying it's likely, but it's possible.
The calculation I always stand by is reward vs risk... OA's are 0.2c currently, so in the next 2 months they will trend towards a 1c gap between the head price and OA price. So the heads need to be consistently above 1.2c in the next 2 months, which hasn't happened in the last 12 months. We are currently at the highest point in 2 years. And to make good money, you really need the price to reach 1.4cents which would give 100% gain if you don't exercise.
IF you plan on exercising, then heads at 1cent is better than paying 1.2cents per head on OA's currently. So that calculation is null and void.
Now lets consider OB's if you don't exercise. Currently the time premium is around 0.5 cents. which means that in the next 18months or so that will trend towards 0.1cent or 0cents. so to make 100%, you need the price to reach 1.6-1.7cents in the next 12 months or so.
So if 100% gain is your target, assuming you're positive on the stock, then you need 0.4 cent gain in 2months which would get you an 80% rise in OB's anyway (roughly 0.9cent price tag based on current off-set), or you need 0.6 cents in 12 months.
If you plan on exercising an option, OB should be the one. If you don't plan on exercising an option, then you can get better leverage over heads in OB's and nearly identical leverage as OA's up to 1.4c in the next 2 months.
The only reason to buy OA over OB currently is you feel the price will be 1.7cents+ before the end of March. Not impossible, but it's a steep target so you're essentially relying on drilling with results in 2 months, which is a quick timeframe.
That's just how I analyse options, imo it's always key to remember what your end goal is. If you're looking at exercising, then make sure you're getting good leverage over heads AFTER paying the exercise price. If you're looking to just make profit on options without exercising, then ensure the additional risk is giving you appropriate leverage.
Expand
(20min delay)