chart for those interested, page-16

Hi longhair

I hear what you are saying but I can't see you putting up any support for your argument. BHP will announce extraordinary earnings for fy 2006 in a few months time. These will be based on prices largely well below the speculative heights reached since Feb this year. These earnings are likely to continue for a number of years at moderate prices simply courtesy of continual demand. Further price reductions are likely to support and possibly stimulate demand for BHP product.

If your argument is to be proven I feel you need to establish three things i. that the boom has peaked (which we will not know until enough time has passed to prove it)
ii. that prices are going to collapse dramatically.
iii. that lower prices will undermine demand for BHPs product

Simple valuation techniques will ensure that BHP sustains a strong price level for several years yet, imo.