The short term downward trend seems to intersect the the strong...

The short term downward trend seems to intersect the the strong long term up trend line at the $4 mark.
Fundamentally there is no reason why the long term trend for coal stocks should not continue.
Macquarie (see the EXL thread for the article) says that whilst prices may weaken, productive capacity has improved markedly in companies like BHP and EXL.
Margins may decline slightly in the near future but this will be more than compensated for by strong demand in China and an increase in volumes of sales.
I think the decline in productive capacity is only a short term thing due to problems at the mine site. There will most likely be a bounce at $4. To go lower than this would mean a break in a very strong long upward trend and fundamentals. Not likely.
Down side risk for this stock would have to be $3.80.