Some very interesting comments RE:banks;I still feel the key to...

Some very interesting comments RE:banks;
I still feel the key to all this is indice performance. I think the fact that banks have largely held onto their gains is a mixture of upcoming divvy, the very high consumer confidence in OZ ATM, institutional games, throw in their some surprising loans figures and hence the current market holding pattern. CBA is a particular interesting case since as Kman points out MM's have been favouring puts by virtue of the IV settings for some time which makes the sideways behaviour and false breaks both ways frustrating and puzzling. CBA PE is currently amongst the highest of the banks and is almost exceeding the XAO avg PE, usually 0.9 bank/XAO ratio is a good indicator of overbought?... how much of an affect the divy is having is hard to say but its affect is obviously there. CBA seemed like a gem to short after its piers lead the falls several weaks back now, I duly rotated out of other banks going short CBA but knew at the time it wouldn't be as simple as that having done well on ANZ (should have taken that holiday after all LOL)

The banks refusal to fall along with a broad-based pickup lead by resources has made the ASX look very toppy IMHO.. just over the last 2-weeks or so XAO seems to be outpacing US & OS gains by around 5% and eventually something eventually gives.. to me CBA is a prime candidate to lead the way and its particulary hard to see it rallying much further, but this wouldn't be the first time it surprises; how desperate funds/investors are to grab the divvy is hard to guage.

Adding to all the confusion is the ASX's refusal to be lead by its nose-ring by its US-master & OS-bank-piers.. surely if signs of weakness continue in the US the ASX will have to follow in sympathy?.. who knows? Like others I know one thing, when its starts its likely tol be decisive in either direction so why try to pre-empt it when such a move should yield plenty of trading opportunities? Doing nothing is sometimes the hardest thing...

DISCLAIMER
keep in mind that my opinions may be coloured by my overall bearishness on the markets and recent reading on historical market crashes LOL