Hi all, a long time since I've posted in these parts but here's...

Hi all, a long time since I've posted in these parts but here's a chart for anyone interested.

Price is sitting at an interesting spot at the moment, with a glimmer of bullish activity but a bit scary not too far below. Trading volume slowed to a drip for several weeks in a narrow contracting range around the 34c to 36c level and eventually price "expanded" and broke down about 10%. But interestingly it seems to have found a bit of demand around the 31c level, with the three highest volume trading days since the beginning of December, and today was one of them. Not that the volume set any records mind you, but hey it's all relative. And today's mid-bar close isn't wildly bullish, but is a potential sign of strength that could be confirmed with further price action.

Price is sitting right at the bottom of a volume shelf- a zone of high volume trading activity from the past that provides good support and resistance zones (light blue box), and just below that is the previous pivot low at 29.5c. It's also sitting right in the middle of the 50 and 61.8 Fib levels if you subscribe to that voodoo (!) However below that there's little in the way of obvious support levels until you get right down to the 20c level again (that's the scary bit).

So the effect of some demand being found at these levels has resulted in a tight bullish momentum divergence that will remain unless price drops below about 30c before making some sort of up move. I've drawn some previous divergences on the chart to show how effective they are in identifying turning points. Price doesn't need a divergence to reverse, but when they appear, they almost always precede a reversal of some sort or at least a halt to the current direction with some sideways movement. How strong and how long the reversal lasts who knows, but let's hope this little bullish divergence is not one of the exceptions where it doesn't work!

Apologies for no strong predictions or anything, but just thought I'd post some levels and background etc because it's well worth watching at the moment. Good luck all.