http://www.4-traders.com/SIRTEX-MEDICAL-LIMITED-6492517/consensus...

http://www.4-traders.com/SIRTEX-MEDICAL-LIMITED-6492517/consensus/

A new analyst coming on board in May, with a 'buy'. Total of 7 = 1 Buy, 4 Outperform, 1 hold. Average target price $12.80.

'They' are estimating over the next 4 years a sales increase from $100m in 2013 to nearly $300m in 2017, and a profit of $20 in 2013 to $100m in 2017.

This would imply dose sales of around 23,000 in 2017, Current capacity, including in plant being built and coming on stream in 2014, is around the 50,000 dose level, without allowing for double shift etc.

Either SRX is over optimistic as to their future needs for production capacity, or the analysts are being cautious in their published numbers. With double shifts SRX could easily meet the 23,000 dose level with the 2 existing generators and Lucas Heights as a backup (albeit this product is more troublesome than the generators).

Regarding Lucas Heights: I would expect to see the trial data showing a better outcome for the later patients as more of the product was sourced from the generator product, whereas the earlier product was from Lucas Heights (a reactor). Assuming SRX were aware of the better outcome from feedback of the medics involved, this may be the reason for increasing the numbers and length of the trial.

A large amount of trial data will now be available to SRX, and they will start to get a very good view as to where this is going. Expect to see some leakage as it is difficult to keep doctors from speaking to each other.


At times I'm not sure which way to think, but on balance SRX has been good to me so I have to give them the benefit of the doubt.