You are certainly correct from a more conservative longer-term...

You are certainly correct from a more conservative longer-term perspective. On the other hand, on a smaller time frame, there has been a breakout, the target of which would call for a test of that level. To see this pattern development taking place in the context of the long term support zone is a promising sign. The risk-reward of the inverse H&S measured target is 2:1 (assuming a failure point slightly under the neckline) which is acceptable.
That would allow a derisked test and semi-profitable test of that level, assuming one took some profit & moved to break even.
It is still a counter trend play for all meaningful purposes but one of decent substance. All IMHO. Honest disclosure...I'm not holding yet, but very likely I will be by the end of the day.