FACT: There’s always a 70% chance of gold making gains in January
Gold’s strong start to 2022 is not entirely unexpected for another reason.
Over the past 50 years, data shows there is a 70% chance of gold gaining from early January to late February in any given year. There are fundamental reasons for these patterns, such as the wedding season in India, where gold plays an important role.
“With a return of nearly 4%, January is the best month of the year,” Manders says.
“Only July and August have nearly as good a track record over various horizons.
“For January 1 to February 22, we observe a hit rate of 18 for the past 25 years, 11 out of the past 15 years, and 8 out of the past 10 years.”
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