Ok, so had a few updates since the attached post from last Sunday but I'm just at a cafe while my son does his martial arts so might save some time if can just refer to last Sundays post (can check through other updates during week if you like also)
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/chart-ta.5769116/page-47#post-62841544As mentioned on Thursday of the previous week, the key level if $1741 could break was $1766 .
GOLD ended up closing within a whisker of this price for 29/7 wk end
At the time I did mention that $1766 price should be just a speed bump and that POG should push further north to test $1796 due to momentum, price action and volume data. However, things may become complicated at this upper price level.
Good news is last weeks high also went within a whisker of this price, just missing by around a dollar.
Bad news is that the other prediction looks to have come to fruition as things just got a little complicated.
After tapping the high (right on the edge of the zone I marked as important) POG dropped straight back down to that other key level of $1766 and bounced right off, leaving GOLD in a pretty precarious place leading into the week ahead...
GOLD daily below.
Investing/trading gold can be confusing at the best of times.
Apparently it's a great hedge against inflation but then the Fed goes and steps in to fight inflation and thus brings some new competing markets to the fore by making interest bearing investments more attractive so gold drops.
Then we hear that gold is a safe haven so with all this news about Russia and China you'd think investors would be piling into gold but unfortunately DXY (USD) is another safe haven and seems to be the preferred one over the last few months.
Dig a little deeper and you'll find that gold doesn't always sell off when rates and DXY are rising so that can leave anyone (even the pros) pretty dumbfounded...
This is why I prefer trading off levels and probabilities rather than off news events.
I have mentioned that DEG is near the top of my watchlist for a LT holds but mid week I had to drop this position (with healthy profits) as we were coming into the 'complicated' zone and risk to reward for overnight holds was diminishing.
Does this mean I think DEG is a bad investment?
Not at all.
I think it has some of the best potential upside for any of the goldies on the asx however when things get complicated I'd rather step out of bigger positions and either trade the underlying market (GOLD) and/or take shorter positions on DEG to be closed by EOD.
(Banking profits in current market is key for my own strategy)
I shared a number of these levels during the week and DEG seemed to play nice all week.
Closing out the week I mentioned DEG should be in for a good day and to watch the 94.5 level.
This turned out to be Fridays low and plenty of upside came thereafter so hopefully a few ppl made some coin in here.
(None of this is investment advice btw just personal records I like to share to put myself out there - before the market moves, not after the fact like most hc 'traders').
So where to next for DEG?
Good question and unfortunately it's been brought into the same scenario as gold
- if they had a relationship status on FB it'd definitely read
'It's complicated'
btw - does anyone actually still use FB?
Actually don't answer that or we could go off on major tangent like most days on hc. lol
Fridays trading did see quite a bit of action on DEG but ultimately it came back to 96 - another key level I mentioned during the week.
I'd imagine we may see a bit of trading between the two HVNs - 87 to 96
Gap at 93 has high probability of closing within coming sessions
Although right in the middle of HVNs - 91.5 - is a key level to watch price action around.
Any breaks lower than 87 should see strong buying around 81.5 - 82.5 initially
Any positive turn arounds may just get put that $1.025 level in play.
DEG Daily
Switching back to GOLD and a quick look at its quick ascent says there should hopefully see some churn around current zone
$1761-$1775
A break lower should see buying around $1741 (mentioned previous week - not shown here)
Lower - strong support between $1714-$1729
GOLD hourly
.
Quick look at the DXY
Bounced directly off edge of 'important' lower zone
Then fell short of resistance at $106.87 by about 27c
However momentum and the FED is favouring a further move north - with jobs data almost backing FED into a corner.
But as specified earlier, watch price action, not news.
Really want to see resistance at $106.87 respected then a break lower than $105 to start getting excited...
DXY daily
.
Anyway thats it for me.
Son has finished martial arts, I've had an early gym session, set up levels on markets for week ahead so now will switch the attention over to the daughter and her maths study...
*slight delay in posting
As always
DYOR
GLTAH
FYI - these are not the actual time frames or profiles I use with my own trading - just the easiest to summarise on hc.
Also, must take into account DEG has its own market so will not always run in parallel with underlying, so it's important to have your own opinion and trade accordingly
All the best
(20min delay)