XAUUSD - red
BTC - white
GDX - green
Messy chart as I wanted to retain some drawings. Ignoring pre-Covid, I observe the following:
GDX lead BTC post Covid crash. Ignoring the % return amplifications of BTC, both asset class seems to track each other generally speaking
XAUUSD which is supposed to have BTC as Gen Z "new" safe asset class has a much more stable bullish trend or less volatility relative to BTC wild swings in both directions. I have not looked at the ratios of BTC-SPX or the likes but I have from memory heard many opinions that BTC is closer correlated to US equity markets until recently as the BTC top formed.
GDX is quite poorly correlated to XAUUSD from 2020-2022 before the late 2022 gold bottom reversal pulled GDX up.
Currently, GDX is once again tracking XAUUSD loosely speaking while BTC is diverging from GDX. So perhaps you can convince me that GDX is inversely correlated to BTC? I like to look at opinions that challenge my view of things because I am always wrong.
BTC is a very controversial asset class and creates a lot of polarisation among those who think it is a very risky investment. I note that the recent Yen carry trade unwinding caused a massive sell-off in BTC while GDX/XAUUSD were relatively stable.
Currently, Yen is strengthening once again today on the perceived bear continuation downtrend. I am 'thinking' that hedge funds that loaded up on the carry trades over the years would be watching the FOMC to gauge if Powell is dovish/hawkish.
A lot to consider like always but for whatever reason gold is where it is for a variety of reasons stretching from real US debt issues to conspiracies.
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