A good daily close as the TL break from this beginning week...

A good daily close as the TL break from this beginning week confluence with the ST resistance (1.27).

Gold price bullish momentum was either baking in the Feds "surprise 50bps cut" or the markets think there is a further aggressive cut this year. I was just listening to Prof Steve Hanke being interviewed post cut who happens to think the inflation is not about IR policies but M2 money supply. HE is a professor and I am a dumb listener but he got 2 important forecasts correct, the peak of inflation which he predicted to be 9% (9.1% was the real high), and 2+% low which is also very close. A monetarist perspective, he thinks inflation will not reach the recent JP Morgan Stagflation scenario because the Feds QT is restricting the money supply.

The key takeaway is that recession is around the corner and there is no soft landing. Gold trajectory also indirectly suggests that IR will not be hiking soon with the tepid inflation in this low IR higher gold price. Just to confuse this observation, wars, Sovereign debt pile, and low oil prices can confuse reasons.

On a further note, USDJPY reversed off the KEY 140 level without any more yen carry trade meltdown. I like to see it this way because when there is panic selling, the logic goes out of the window and only those looking to get in can take advantage while the exposed just do the BHP strategy!