Re the trading today, the pattern felt very different from the normal course of action which to me looked like "a" larger seller with some urgency just pipping it down unnecessarily when there was strength on the buy side. Even jumping over themselves to let more go. Perhaps someone getting margin called on another position given the ASX sell down today. Who knows. However, I did sense the seller ammo was running out late afternoon and buyers waiting in the wings.
One table I would like to point out here is the course of late sales which I think is very pivotal to how we read the charts. So while the cross printed
35.5 (around 50% retracement of the run), if we stopped the clock at 3:58:45,
one minute or so before close, then we would have seen
38.5 as the final price.(a very shallow retracement in Fibonacci terms). This
38.5 price would have been absolutely fine and in line with the previous candlestick wicks from last week. Result would have been a shallow retracement on a bad ASX day that would have printed a bullish hammer candle.....ready to go up again.
So the difference between a strong bullish reversal chart today and the final price rested on a handful of shares out of 11,608,466. If we look at the screen now, we can see that the bid is 35.5 but the ask is 38. That tells us something. The sell lines are very thin up to 40 and even there, it is only 191,401. Then a handful up to 43.
I think today was essentially representative of one major player that was racing to sell - one of the clumsiest techniques I have seen for a long time BTW that may be desperation. Note how thin the sell lines were above the action and continued to be all day.
High probability of a good bounce given that the selling is not on news nor with uniform participation and the clock ticking one day closer to US listing. An opportunity.
