Chart thread, page-308

First 308 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
ccdavid

2,507 Posts.

303

16/05/22

19:48

Post #: 61439766
Share

Originally posted by ccdavid: ↑

PAN and MCR are both a buy and under valued even at PoN at US$20K/Ton.
Current Market Price PAN at A$553.7 M MCR at A$1,017M
The main difference between the two is the Annual Production Guidance.
PAN Guidance is around 10KT Nickel /annum while MCR at 16KT Nickel/Annum.
MCR will also have a considerable lower AISC being higher grade(3.3%) and its offtaker is
BHP which owns Kambalda Concentrator where MCR Mined Ore is directly trucked to Kambalda.
Even if we say that both AISC around $A6.00/lb,
EBITDA PAN at PoN US$12.5/lb(A17.8/lb) = 10,000T*($17.8-A$6.00)*2204lb/T = A$261 M/Year (12 Yrs = A$3B)
MCR at 16,000T/Annum = 1.6*A$261 = A$418M/Year (8yrs plus) = A$3.3B
Advantage of MCR over PAN,
3.3% Grade means less ore mine to create the same volume of Nickel than PAN at 1.6%.
Offtaker is LOCAL , BHP Kambalda is just 50km from MCR Mine. Ore Direct Trucking
No offshore Shipping.
MCR will prove by Jun Quarter how much it will produce. Concentrate Production started 6 May 2022.
PAN will have to prove it can Deliver 30 KT Concentrates per Quarter by Sept Quarter.
If both can produce as per their Guidance then PAN Market cap can exceed 1 billion
and MCR Market Cap can be 2 Billion. Just my analysis basing on Guidance and Grades.

Expand

I forgot to show PAN advantage over MCR
PAN has a 1Mton / Annum Concentrator
MCR doesn't have a Concentrator
MCR Milling Cost / lb in 2015 is A$1.16/lb and I'm sure it will be way higher now.
PAN have proven production for 2 Quarters now and has improved.(No surprises here)
MCR still to prove production result this Jun Quarter. Could be good or bad.
So in my opinion, PAN is a better bet at this point in time with the sp way too undervalued.
DYOR

Last edited by ccdavid: 16/05/22

PAN Price at posting: 26.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
8 Upvote

1 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

RCE

Recce eyes Indonesia for novel anti-infective as Indo-Aus ties grow stronger

Arika to pump $3.2M into gold exploration at WA's Yundamindra following strong maiden program

NEU

Neuren sees FDA greenlight for 3rd trial into children with Phelan-McDermid syndrome

CHM

Leukaemia patient shows complete response in Chimeric Therapeutics' latest trial

NYR

Nyrada rat study shows no genotoxicity in brain injury drug NYR-BI03

There are more pages in this discussion • 909 more messages in this thread...

First 308 Last

Add PAN (ASX) to my watchlist

Chart thread, page-308

Top Stories

Recce eyes Indonesia for novel anti-infective as Indo-Aus ties grow stronger

Arika to pump $3.2M into gold exploration at WA's Yundamindra following strong maiden program

Neuren sees FDA greenlight for 3rd trial into children with Phelan-McDermid syndrome

Leukaemia patient shows complete response in Chimeric Therapeutics' latest trial

Nyrada rat study shows no genotoxicity in brain injury drug NYR-BI03

Featured News