Chart thread, page-339

"But then again you may have had the macro environment work in your favour, haha"

I had the market trend in my favour, but if you look at my twitter you'll find I said we were heading into a market top in May last year and said late November I'd moved to 100% cash. I traded some of the resource stocks this year but I've stayed small and nimble. I read the market by watching the stocks and the indices, I pay almost no attention to FA or macro, that's for smart people. One of my key edges in the market over most people is I'm smart enough to know I'm dumb (the vast majority of economists are always wrong, what hope do I have trying to play against the smartest minds in the world on a macro basis)

As for PAN, even if it bounces here, it's a laggard in the nickel space .. the worst of the producers. Compare the chart of MCR to PAN, that trend up on MCR from December is just a wall of accumulation, look at the volume that bought it up and look how little volume sold it back down. MCR also spent a month and a half forming a bottom and is now trying to get up trending again, PAN still has barely started the bottoming process. Look at the volume that's sold PAN down too, it's not pretty. If the resource names roll over again, PAN will go a lot lower (imo of course)

I said during PAN's uptrend, it just always felt like it was being distributed, retail bought it up and large holders sold into them and have really upped the pace of selling since the highs(my theory). Now with other stocks in the space bottomed(whether that's an actual bottom or just an intermediate one) and getting bought back up, no one with real money is willing to buy PAN, says to me they're afraid of getting stuck with the stock

No doubt if nickel remains high PAN will survive, if nickel goes higher then PAN is probably highly leveraged to the nickel price but even at current, historically very high nickel prices, PAN appears to be on pretty skinny margins. How long will nickel stay at or above the current levels? Yeah, yeah, I know batteries are the future blah blah but themes don't last forever, new nickel supply will come or battery chemistry will change. Once upon a time China was the future that was going to drive metals prices forever, they didn't go anywhere but base metals and even iron ore and coal went back to very low prices sending many ASX listed companies broke

For base metals in the short term(next few months), I'm on the fence with maybe a little bit of bear bias, medium term though I think they will remain strong - the GFC killed iron ore prices but they recovered on the other side for a couple of years, I'm thinking something like that again except base metals will also recover this time. I do believe the shortage is real and will take time to resolve, but again, that's really for the smart people, I'll just follow the price trends