Well in theory given the March quarter saw higher costs the business needs to make strong ground in the June quarter to at the very least fall in-line with their revised FY23 guidance (weighted average) of $16.91/lb - Going by their track record (disappointing each quarter since the restart) do not be surprised to see continued excuses like Victor fell from his rocking horse and so costs remain elevated and therefore costs blew out of the revised FY23 guidance.
Even on the hypothetical they meet their revised FY23 guidance - Would you call a weighted average cost of $16.91 encouraging?
Would you even consider their proposed weighted average cost for FY24 guidance at $13.50/lb reasonable?
I would be pleasantly surprised if they achieved the said $13.50/lb cost in FY24 but again I have my doubts because the track record tells me they can easily blow out of this for any little excuse.
If Victor wants to prove to the market his the real McCoy and he has costs under control… He needs to now start delivering on targeted cost reduction program, increased productivity (no more let downs) and BEAT the proposed guidance to get costs sub $10/lb quickly because he may not have the luxury of elevated nickel prices to see him through.
The above is expressly my opinions and views.
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