Chart thread, page-185

I have been keeping a close eye on gold ETF flows in the last few months and especially from late February. ETFs have been significant net sellers of gold which to date have been a real negative for the POG for the past 3 years. If not for central bank buying of gold the POG would probably be about $US1,700. Historically once ETFs become net buyers of gold the POG increases significantly - see last image below to understand the very positive relationship between ETF flows and POG until the last 18 months.

In the second week of March ETF flows were slightly positive after being negative for some time. The most interesting aspect is that North America were the biggest buyers equal to the highest amount in nearly 2 years and a reversal of being the most significant sellers.

This may be the start of significant buying of gold by ETFs and if it is then the POG will soon pass $US2,300 assuming central banks continue to buy at similar levels as over the last 18 months. We need a few more weeks of net buying to be clear the ETFs are becoming net buyers and for the net buying to climb much higher before POG really starts to increase a lot more. If that happens and ETFs become significant net buyers over the rest of 2024, then it won’t surprise me if POG goes close to $US2,500 later this year assuming Fed rate cuts start coming though.

Silver could really outperform gold.