RandomK or Hoots I know this is old stuff I pulled out of...

RandomK or Hoots I know this is old stuff I pulled out of commsec on 3/10/17 but how do the figures you have been putting out stack up against theirs? Im not sure which of you were working them out. Interesting because we are 5/6 weeks now down the track from this forecast and we have had the singles day.

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We upgrade our forecasts for A2M’s infant formula sales in FY18E to +53% from 41% previously. This is driven by:
(1) a greater focus on the offline (Mother and Baby Store) channel in China (we provide more context below);
(2) continued growth in A2M’s core online market; and,
(3) no disruption to sales in FY18 (unlike in FY17 when A2M’s sales were impacted by supply shortages).
We estimate A2M sold NZ$116mn of infant formula in 4Q17 so while our FY18E sales growth forecast is +53%, it implies a c.30% growth on the annualized run rate from 4Q17.
Sizing the market opportunity in China
We see strong demand from China continuing to be the driver of infant formula demand for A2M, increasing from c.65% in FY17 to c.72% of A2M’s total sales in FY18E.
We estimate that the infant formula market in China in FY17 was worth around RMB107bn, with A2M having c.3.1% market share. This reasonably consistent with the Kantar market share data quoted by A2M, which estimates A2M had 3.5% market share in China for the quarter ending 30 June 2017.
We forecast the China infant formula market to grow at c.4.8% p.a. to RMB 123mn by FY20E, with A2M’s market share increasing to 7.5% over this same period."