The problem with this is the assumption in section 3 that the US will behave as a single uniform model. I expect that the majority of the population may follow a pattern somewhere between China and Italy but due to a combination of the following the whole process could drag out for 12 months or more:
1. Rogue behaviour (Aspen anyone?)
2. Uncontrolled behaviours (homeless, backpackers can't always isolate even if they want to)
3. Bad leadership (as evidenced by the hairdresser and Ruby Princess fiascos, they just don't get it)
And if we (or especially the US) can't eliminate new infections what's going to happen in 2 months when new infections flatline but if restrictions are removed they're likely to take off again?
The problem with this is the assumption in section 3 that the US...
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