Don't go there
@h00ts. My cousins wife rang me when APT was at $9 and asked should she should buy some. My concern was why did it fall so far and fast, I told her to go for it as she was not going to put all her eggs in one basket. As always greed gets the better of you and she put in a buy at $8.50 hoping it was going to drop back down on the day and did not look at the 75% drop and just buy at market.
The 18% holding of A2M I sold on that day is now up over $1.3M with another 10% on top of that in dividends. I contemplated selling my remaining A2M holding to go all in APT at $9 as a short term play. I cant still get my head around with the low cost of entry that competing products from the big incumbents, who could easily come in with Ubank type sub brands, have not arrived and cut APT lunch. The fact that A2M is debt free, cashed up and unaffected by Covid-19 and the biggest gorilla in the IF space, Nestle, could not make a dent in our growth made me hesitate to get out of the safety of A2M to risk it all in a company that is experiencing explosive growth but is yet to turn a profit. If I had pulled the trigger and rotated the remainder of our A2M holding into A2M I would been sitting on a $100M gain
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My cousin's wife missed out and thought about buying in again at $20 but again waited for the pull back that never came. I think A2M steady as she goes growth is better for my well being as a lot of the BNPL plays seem to be driven more by the retail share buyers FOMO and over enthusiasm in turning a quick in and out profit. Like you say it was a missed once in a decade opportunity but from here I see both A2M and APT equally adding another bag over the next 5 years. APT explosive growth is not sustainable just like our early growth rate was and although the pie is growing there is going to be plenty of new entrants in that space to fight over it.
There is going to be new entrants into the A2M space but history has shown there is big hurdles to the new entrants and being a first mover has entrenched our name and standing within the A2 space. We are further down the growth curve than all these new BNPL plays and for that reason we will be paying a dividend well before they announce they will. Lets hope August's report card continues the A2M growth story to ease the pain of what could of been for a lot of A2M holders.
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