Chart Update, page-17689

Sorry guys I don’t know why everyone is buying into Citi’s plot. And that’s exactly what Citi wanted to see. All the other big boys have SP target varies between $10.5-15 with long positions and skins in the game to back them up. If you take 100m out from A2’s ANZ IF business to forecast a total collapse of Daigou which will give you a rock bottom scenario , close to $8 still gives you a fair P/E of around 26-27. Have you noticed that the expansion in China alone is already more than making up the drop in CEBC channel even with an net increase in revenue in that segment? Morgan Stanley is very much long on A2M , millions shares caught since 25/02 and tens of millions spent on long swap agreement expiring Aug to Oct and more in 2022-23 . They tried to test the market sentiment and bought an insurance , a $11.8m put option at $7.88 , after suffering loss since 25/02 and forecasting a volatile March with US future transaction expiring on the 19/03 . The question is who sold the put option to Morgan S? I wouldn’t be surprised it is Citi. When sentiment is bearish, investment banks give SP target lower than their actual plan to rope in the retails so they can cover their shorts and turn things around. And vice versa in the bullish market a higher SP target. I’m not sure how many of you downbeat sellers at this SP has the patience to sit down and do some calcs and analyse the situation before jumping on the sell bottom. Citi is probably laughing all the way to the banks literally ! I have no intention to stop you guys from selling it’s your choice but a bit more lateral thinking and patience is needed here. I suppose that’s the thing really makes a difference on the investment outcome over the mid to long term. And I shall add , when the steep correction hits the market is the time when Daigou and CEBC channel gradually recovers and China expansion at full steam. Don’t you want to buys some defensive stocks to hedge your portfolio while it’s cheap to prepare for a rainy day? Look at how many people rushed to A2M during the peak of fear back in March 2020?