Chart Update, page-17738

Don’t use the broker data , use some common sense and build your own math model . let’s go for the worst the scenario , rock bottom scenario you can forecast a total collapse of Daigou and remove 100m(50%) of the remaining 200m HY ANZ IF. Chinese expansion is offsetting the CEBC decline. With corporate Daigou on the mend and logistic improves , CEBC is set to recover in 2HY .The company tells you the forecast Rev low end is $1.4 B . Remove $100m gives you $1.3B and can things be worse than this number ? Probably not. That translates to a NAPT of $230m . At $8 PE is 25.7 . After the rock bottom in Aug, what’s gonna happen? Every single tin of additional IF sold by Daigou will start to lower that PE and CEBC is recovering and China shop expansion is accelerating. Rev growth is gonna accelerate on the China Segment and recover on ANZ IF. The US fresh milk business will break even no earnings will be burned there. Additional 17-20m earning. So do you think people will wait till SP to hit 6s to buy? At $8 Do you think it’s possible? Even Citi doesn’t entertain this idea. I mean Citi........ And US economy is set to recover , interest raise expection will drive up the USD and suppress the NZD and AUD. Further upsides to earning. And not to mention the market will get spooked by the interest raise and starts correcting itself. People will start tripping over themselves to come over here again. This is my model.