Chart Update, page-18318

Well actually, based on your own numbers, 2H21 ANZ IF could be $298mn and still land on the 1.4B guidance figure. So even if it fell another 5% half-on-half they would still meet guidance.

Your $485M figure for China label would equate to a 44% YoY increase from FY20 which is not unreasonable to me but it's not conservative either.

Remember the market share growth of +0.4% in 1H21 came after a pause in store rollout for a couple of months in 2H20 due to COVID. So it depends whether the aggressive push in 1H21 can be sustained, or whether it was temporarily higher than usual because of some new stores getting pushed back.

But even if China label is a bit more conservative (e.g. 35% growth YoY), ANZ IF is completely flat, and ANZ fresh milk continues similar growth (which you didn't assume), and other figures are as you posted, it still basically lands on $1.4B. So I do see a fare bit of upside when it comes to revenue. Margins are harder to forecast, but at least the foreign exchange headwinds are forecast to be a little more favorable in this half.