Q3 or Q4 update for that matter is irrelevant to the strategic share price of A2M. Why do i say the strategic share price, because obviously from a short term view it will be a market sensitive announcement and will have an effect on the share price in the short term.
But that's only short term, any trader (who concentrates on short term) will obviously pay lots of attention to any such announcement, but any investor will not.
The trader is betting that in the short term the market is a voting machine, the investor is betting that in the long term the market is a weighing machine.
Profits for FY21 and FY22 are going to be crap. Most intelligent investors recognize this fact. Investors focus will be thus on FY23 and FY24. Relatedly is that its still too uncertain for investors to have concrete views on this (they can have a view, but can they back it with any data).
So I expect A2M to be in no-mans land for the next year or so, as the constant debates continue.
But as time moves forward, as we progress through time, I can tell everyone one thing, one whiff of things returning to more normal, students etc coming back, the first to move will be the traders, the lower the share price the more opportunity traders will sense, even if its a case of 'buy the rumour sell the fact', the next will be the investors who start to receive the data flow that things are turning around (and this will not be evident on hotcopper).
hOOts will start to see a change in the trend (but with a lag).
There will be a couple of posters who bragged that they picked the bottom (and one day one of these posters will be right).
Of course this is assuming that A2M fundamentals correct over time.
The other side is that A2M continue to stuff things up.
Share price continues to drop because A2M becomes recognised as a 'one trick pony' and that its marketing of brand becomes commoditized over time.
Leon has the time of his life, because he will continue to blast away how correct he was on his now reduced price target of $5.40. Any holder will feel like an ultimate schmuck for continuing to hold the share.
Conclusion: both sides could end up being the 'winner' and correct, We need time to see how this plays out.
However Leon's support of the article which highlighted A2M strong point fundamentals are still in play, just at which correct valuation: *Low debt *Strong financial strength *High traditional return on capital *Low requirement for significant capital deployment for growth.
A2M Price at posting:
$7.75 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)