Chart Update, page-20416

NZ has a much better relationship with China and a favourable FTA re diary. Not comparable with our toxic relationship. This is only now being picked up and pointed out by analysts, Switzer actually made a joke about how the company had to flout its NZ pedigree now .
The local diary target in China is old news first came out a few years ago when I held Bellamy's. This means nothing as since then projections have factored this in. The damage of lower population growth in a massive market like China is also minimal given market share is still tiny and there is so much room to do better.

What I see as problematic is the permanent drop in daigou with students and tourism from China unless there is a relationship turnaround soon which now will only happen when we get an iron ore hit from Vale emerging from its problems and the readiness of China's African mines. Should see the impact of this on our economy in two years time and getting worse. Right now we r living an extraordinary boom in inflated iron ore prices I have never seen before and politicians get votes building up fear of China .

This may mean increases in students and tourists to NZ but not enough to resolve the problem by a long shot. A2m will have to build up stores and sales within China that is a given for it to recover. It must also find new markets. As a secondary benefit the more we develop the more Chinese tourists and students can buy them there as well to profit from but this must never be the primary source of income again. This is my only concern as the overstocking issue can be resolved. This is going to take a year at least.

None of us know what is going to happen in the US which is a vulnerable very divided democracy right now or the US and China. No point in factoring in these scary scenario's as lets face it the whole stock market would crash anyway.!