When we are talking about a2 forget about Dow Jones and ASX or...

When we are talking about a2 forget about Dow Jones and ASX or anything remotely related to fundamental investing. Unfortunately, at this stage a2 become highly speculative stock rather than investment grade. It's traded mainly on current news out of China and even more on speculations around those news. Lack of proper communication from the company does not help either.
Current situation is almost identical with what we had in march-may this year. All started with china's lockdowns and speculations that a2 will suffer because of that. Shorts went up, price was pushed down and it was only interrupted when FDA announced their discretion policy. An extra boost to price was after FY results news.
At this moment negative news from China start emerge again. Xi reelection is seen as bad for foreign businesses. Some news about competitors dumping their stocks and increasing competition (again) so margins will be affected. Buy back announced but not buying yet seen as company expecting bad news coming.
I won't comment on Xi reelection but I see it same as "ccp want to kill a2" kind of "news". However, I was reading a bit about current IF market situation in China and yes it seems like there is some price pressure at the moment but this is mainly because smaller competitors are on the way out as they are not expecting to receive new SAMR registration and won't be able to sell after February. Up to one third of current registrations expected not to be renewed mainly for smaller competitors as they have no ability or do not see advantage to adjust their production to new requirements, plus many of them can't afford the cost (over $1m) and time length of the process (at least 8 months). Once new requirements are in place pricing pressure and competition is expected to ease. Based on this I also think buyback won't be started until after a2 gets its SAMR approval which I expect somewhere in January. Before that I see price drifting lower same as it was in march-may.
Btw, if anybody interested in Feihe updates, from what I found so far their market share this year is ~19% compare to ~20% at the end of last year, revenue and profit down quite a bit in the first HY and share price is 20% from ATH