Was curious and I went and took a quick look at the most recent port data for May 2025.
It's true there has been a pretty substantial decrease in IF exports to China, both compared to previous month (April 2025) and previous corresponding period (May 2024).
The drop is particularly sharp in Chinese bound IF exports from Christchurch (which are exclusively A2M) but not quite as bad if you include Chinese bound IF exports from all other ports.
So the more optimistic interpretations might be:
- there's been a bit of a shift in the product mix being sold to China (e.g. A2 Gentle Gold, A2 HMO) not being manufactured at Synlait and therefore being sent out of other ports - seasonality - there was already inventory build up for April 2025 leading into 618, therefore lower exports needed.
Exports to Australia seem a little lower than April, but just flat compared to last year.
One positive is big increase to Vietnam, on top of already higher exports in April.
A2M Price at posting:
$7.73 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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