Chart - Will it break below $3.27 ?, page-5

In my opinion and looking at whole market here - MYOB have no been seen in this market as innovating, but rather as following and for several years now. They have had a progression of half baked attempts at innovating with late/delayed/disappointing deliveries and a sense that the primary focus has been on selling the business rather than running the business (maybe that's what you get when a VC is involved). Counter this to Xero has been seen as all about innovation and breaking new ground and new ideas, propogating a vibrant ecosystem (eg. like Apple Store for Xero users), serious investment in API's to facilitate this ecosystem, and a focus on continued re-investment rather than ROI for an end game of mass scale (think business model Amazon).
This does not mean MYOB aren't trying, but the question is how do they reverse this trend and/or market perception ? The accounting market has very much a herd mentality and once it starts running in moves quickly both to and from providers.
The other players have different models/motives;
Intuit (Quickbooks) = in AU to knee-cap Xero and anyone else who stands in their way and replicate their domination in US into Asia,
Sage (handisoft) = try and hold onto what they have with a history of failed and half pregnant attempts to bring their tech into the 21st century. They retain legacy market share predominantly driven by accountant lethargy, change reluctance, and "cheap"
APS (Reckon) = a lot of noise over the last couple of years but little show for the investment they have had to make to "keep up", maybe they can start to win back the hearts and minds but their competitors have now got serious traction and keep delivering

The future - its an open field but Xero have the media attention and seem to be the industry thought leaders (rightly or wrongly). They still have plenty of risk and unchartered water to navigate, and are very stretched with their resources with their global endeavours and rumours of a Nasdaq/US listing (refer previous comments on MYOb and last point).

Is this the bottom out for myob - who knows. What is certain is that this is a very competitive landscape and not a big market proportionate to the rest of the world. My money is on the businesses that can demonstrate a strong and relevant vision, one that is well articulated and most importantly well executed (business 101). They need to intimately understand and listen to their market place and deliver solutions to these specific needs - stop solving problems but eradicate causes (leep-frog the problem altogether with a whole new way of doing things - eg.get rid of manual entry rather than making it easier).

I do not believe this sector and current landscape will be as crowded in the next 5 years due to the simple economics of what is needed to survive and thrive and many will become obsolete. This poses both opportunity and threat and what makes this space an exciting place to place your bets - be careful however which chess pieces you choose, some may not be the ultimate winners but could be very valuable pieces for others to take and others will become redundant.

Enjoy the ride